An analysis of change in alpine annual maximum discharges: implications for the selection of design discharges     

Attilio Castellarin  Alberto Pistocchi 《水文研究》2012,26(10):1517-1526

The paper presents an analysis of 17 long annual maximum series (AMS) of flood flows for Swiss Alpine basins, aimed at checking the presence of changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima. We apply Pettitt's change point test, the nonparametric sign test and Sen's test on trends. We also apply a parametric goodness‐of‐fit test for assessing the suitability of distributions estimated on the basis of annual maxima collected up to a certain year for describing the frequency regime of later observations. For a number of series the tests yield consistent indications for significant changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima and increasing trends in the intensity of annual maximum discharges. In most cases, these changes cannot be explained by anthropogenic causes only (e.g. streamflow regulation, construction of dams). Instead, we observe a statistically significant relationship between the year of change and the elevation of the catchment outlet. This evidence is consistent with the findings of recent studies that explain increasing discharges in alpine catchments with an increase in the temperature controlling the portion of mountain catchments above the freezing point. Finally, we analyse the differences in return periods (RPs) estimated for a given flood flow on the basis of recent and past observations. For a large number of the study AMS, we observe that, on average, the 100‐year flood for past observations corresponds to a RP of approximately 10 to 30 years on the basis of more recent observation. From a complementary perspective, we also notice that estimated RP‐year flood (i.e. flood quantile (FQ) associated with RP) increases on average by approximately 20% for the study area, irrespectively of the RP. Practical implications of the observed changes are illustrated and discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Impact of climate change on 24‐h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin,East China     

Yue‐Ping Xu  Xujie Zhang  Ye Tian 《水文研究》2012,26(26):4067-4077

The frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological or hydrological events such as floods and droughts in China have been influenced by global climate change. The water problem due to increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the humid areas has gained great attention in recent years. However, the main challenge in the evaluation of climate change impact on extreme events is that large uncertainty could exist. Therefore, this paper first aims to model possible impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation (indicated by 24‐h design rainfall depth) at seven rainfall gauge stations in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The Long Ashton Research Station‐Weather Generator is adopted to downscale the global projections obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate data at site scale. The weather generator is also checked for its performance through three approaches, namely Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, comparison of L‐moment statistics and 24‐h design rainfall depths. Future 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations are estimated using Pearson Type III distribution and L‐moment approach. Second, uncertainty caused by three GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the future periods 2020s (2011–2030), 2055s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2080–2099) is investigated. The final results show that 24‐h design rainfall depth increases in most stations under the three GCMs and emission scenarios. However, there are large uncertainties involved in the estimations of 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations because of GCM, emission scenario and other uncertainty sources. At Hangzhou Station, a relative change of ?16% to 113% can be observed in 100y design rainfall depths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

RESEARCH ACTIVITIES ON LAND USE/COVER CHANGE IN THE PAST TEN YEARS IN CHINA USING SPACE TECHNOLOGY   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

庄大方  刘纪远  刘明亮 《中国地理科学(英文版)》1999,9(4):330-334

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Topographically moderated soil water seasons impact vegetation dynamics in semiarid mountain catchments: Illustrations from the Dry Creek Experimental Watershed,Idaho, USA     

Michael J. Poulos  Toni J. Smith  Shawn G. Benner  Jennifer L. Pierce  Alejandro N. Flores  Mark S. Seyfried  James P. McNamara 《水文研究》2021,35(12):e14421

Water stored in soils, in part, controls vegetation productivity and the duration of growing seasons in wildland ecosystems. Soil water is the dynamic product of precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil properties, all of which vary across complex terrain making it challenging to decipher the specific controls that soil water has on growing season dynamics. We assess how soil water use by plants varies across elevations and aspects in the Dry Creek Experimental Watershed in southwest Idaho, USA, a mountainous, semiarid catchment that spans low elevation rain to high elevation snow regimes. We compare trends in soil water and soil temperature with corresponding trends in insolation, precipitation and vegetation productivity, and we observe trends in the timing, rate and duration of soil water extraction by plants across ranges in elevation and aspect. The initiation of growth-supporting conditions, indicated by soil warming, occurs 58 days earlier at lower, compared with higher, elevations. However, growth-supporting conditions also end earlier at lower elevations due to the onset of soil water depletion 29 days earlier than at higher elevations. A corresponding shift in peak NDVI timing occurs 61 days earlier at lower elevations. Differences in timing also occur with aspect, with most threshold timings varying by 14–30 days for paired north- and south-facing sites at similar elevations. While net primary productivity nearly doubles at higher elevations, the duration of the warm-wet period of active water use does not vary systematically with elevation. Instead, the greater ecosystem productivity is related to increased soil water storage capacity, which supports faster soil water use and growth rates near the summer solstice and peak insolation. Larger soil water storage does not appear to extend the duration of the growing season, but rather supports higher growing season intensity when wet-warm soil conditions align with high insolation. These observations highlight the influence of soil water storage capacity in dictating ecological function in these semiarid steppe climatic regimes.  相似文献   

The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Jane Kabubo-Mariara  Fredrick K. Karanja 《Global and Planetary Change》2007,57(3-4):319-330

This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas.  相似文献   

遥感技术与其全球变化的研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

高彦春  牛铮  王长耀 《地球信息科学学报》2000,2(2):42-46

全球变化是当今地球科学研究的热点。具有全球观测能力的遥感技术成为全球变化研究的重要技术手段。本文对全球变化研究的主要内容进行了简要回顾 ,对遥感技术在全球变化研究当中的地位和作用进行了论述 ,并对一些新一代的传感器作了简要介绍 ,同时对我国遥感工作者在全球变化方面的一些工作作了介绍。  相似文献   

1992—2007全球海平面变化     

马金周永宏  廖德春廖新浩 《中国科学院上海天文台年刊》2007,(1):37-41

引起全球海平面变化的因素是复杂多样的，大气压、风、大洋环流以及海水密度的变化，都会引起海平面在时间、空间上的变化，而海水温度的变化是海平面变化的主要原因。该文利用法国Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data（AVISO）的海表面高度异常数据，计算了1992年10月至2007年1月间，全球海平面的平均上升速度，同时详细解算海平面上升速度的全球空间分布，分析全球海平面的变化趋势并将海平面变化同美国国家海洋大气署（NOAA）的Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature （OISST）海表面温度数据进行了比对和相关分析。  相似文献   

Assessing uncertainties in dust emission in the Aral Sea region caused by meteorological fields predicted with a mesoscale model     

Kremena Darmenova  Irina N. Sokolik   《Global and Planetary Change》2007,56(3-4):297

This study investigates how the choice of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization and dust emission scheme affects the prediction of dust entrainment simulated with a regional mesoscale model. For this analysis we consider a representative dust episode which occurred on April 2001 in the Aral Sea region. The meteorological fields were simulated using the PSU/NCAR MM5 modeling system considering two different boundary layer parameterizations. In each case, emitted dust fluxes were computed off-line by incorporating MM5 meteorological fields into the dust module DuMo. Several dust emission schemes with a prescribed erodible fraction and fixed threshold wind speed were the subject of our analysis. Implications to assessment of the anthropogenic fraction of dust emitted in the Aral region were investigated by conducting the full, half, and no lake modeling experiments.Our results show that the discrepancies in dust fluxes between the two different PBLs are much higher compared to the discrepancy associated with the use of considered dust production schemes. Furthermore, the choice of the PBL affects the timing and duration of a modeled dust event. We demonstrate that different combinations of the PBL parameterization and wind- or friction velocity-driven dust emission schemes can result in up to about a 50% difference in predicted dust mass caused by the Aral Sea desiccation. We found that the drying-up of the Aral cannot only affect the dust emission by expanding the source area, but also by affecting atmospheric characteristics, especially winds. These competitive factors add further complexity to quantification of the anthropogenic dust fraction in the region.  相似文献   

基础地理信息动态更新技术体系初探   总被引：15，自引：2，他引：13  

陈军  赵仁亮  王东华 《地理信息世界》2007,5(5):4-9

近年来,我国测绘部门完成了国家级基础地理信息数据库的"初始建库",基础测绘工作重点已转向持续更新和灵性服务。未来的基础地理信息"应需适时更新"将体现更新内容灵性化、更新周期适时化、更新方式多元化等特点,其主要业务模式包括变化监测、变化测定、主数据库更新和产品更新及服务四大部分。为了有效开展"应需适时更新",应构建包括动态监测与数据预处理、变化信息采集与处理、数据库与产品更新、更新信息网络化服务四大主体部分的动态更新技术体系。该体系是信息化测绘技术体系的一个重要组成部分,应加强对其关键技术的研发,开展技术装备成套化和业务体系建设。  相似文献   

Detecting Arctic snow and ice cover with FY-1D global data     

References： 《极地研究(英文版)》2007,18(1):54-62

Chinese meteorological satellite FY-1D can obtain global data from four spectral channels which include visible channel(0.58-0.68 μm) and infrared channels(0.84-0.89 μm,10.3-11.3 μm,11.5-12.5 μm).2366 snow and ice samples,2024 cloud samples,1602 land samples and 1648 water samples were selected randomly from Arctic imageries.Land and water can be detected by spectral features.Snow-ice and cloud can be classified by textural features.The classifier is Bayes classifier.By synthesizing five d ays classifying result of Arctic snow and ice cover area,complete Arctic snow and ice cover area can be obtained.The result agrees with NOAA/NESDIS IMS products up to 70%.  相似文献